An extended Kalman-filter for regional scale inverse emission estimation

A Kalman-filter based inverse emission estimation method for long-lived trace gases is presented for use in conjunction with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model like FLEXPART. The sequential nature of the approach allows tracing slow seasonal and interannual changes rather than estimating a single period-mean emission field. Other important features include the estimation of a slowly varying concentration background at each measurement station, the possibility to constrain the solution to non-negative emissions, the quantification of uncertainties, the consideration of temporal correlations in the residuals, and the applicability to potentially large inversion problems. The method is first demonstrated for a set of synthetic observations created from a prescribed emission field with different levels of (correlated) noise, which closely mimics true observations. It is then applied to real observations of the three halocarbons HFC-125, HFC-152a and HCFC-141b at the remote research stations Jungfraujoch and Mace Head for the quantification of emissions in Western European countries from 2006 to 2010. Estimated HFC-125 emissions are mostly consistent with national totals reported to the Kyoto protocol and show a generally increasing trend over the considered period. Results for HFC-152a are much more variable with estimated emissions being both higher and lower in different countries. The highest emissions of the order of 1000 Mg yr-1 are estimated for Italy which so far does not report HFC-152a emissions. Emissions of HCFC-141b show a continuing strong decrease as expected due to its ban under the Montreal Protocol. Emissions from France, however, were still rather large (near 1000 Mg yr-1) in the years 2006 and 2007 but strongly declined thereafter.
 
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Dominik Brunner (Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology,) - Stephan Henne (Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology,) - Christoph A. Keller (Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology,) - Stefan Reimann (Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology,) - Martin K. Vollmer (Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology,) - Simon O'Doherty (School of Chemistry, University of Bristol,) - Michela Maione (The University of Urbino "Carlo Bo" - Chemical Science Institute) (2011) . An extended Kalman-filter for regional scale inverse emission estimation. Copernicus GmbH (Copernicus Publications) https://geoportal.mountaingenius.org/geonetwork/srv/api/records/3fab138b-09b3-4636-9b22-90c15fc8213e
 

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2011-10-28T00:00:00
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Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,Volume 11
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27107-29559
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Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 29195–29249, 2011
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  • inverse emission estimation method , trace gases
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Abstract:"An extended Kalman-filter for regional scale inverse emission estimation."  

Abstract:"An extended Kalman-filter for regional scale inverse emission estimation."

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acpd-11-29195-2011.pdf  

Full Text(pdf):"An extended Kalman-filter for regional scale inverse emission estimation."

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“An extended Kalman-filter for regional scale inverse emission estimation”

Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 29195-29249, 2011

D. Brunner, S. Henne, C. A. Keller, S. Reimann, M. K. Vollmer, S. O'Doherty, and M. Maione

www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/29195/2011/

doi:10.5194/acpd-11-29195-2011

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2012-02-21T12:18:58
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